FIRST ON THE DAILY SIGNAL—Republican House candidates in purple districts who support changing the childhood vaccine schedule could pay the price in midterms, according to new data from President Donald Trump’s go-to pollster, FabrizioWard.

“In the districts that will decide the control of the House of Representatives next year, Republican and Democratic candidates who support eliminating long standing vaccine requirements will pay a price in the elections,” says a Nov. 3 memo obtained by The Daily Signal.

FabrizioWard, a polling firm led by Tony Fabrizio and Bob Ward, surveyed 1,000 voters in the 35 most competitive congressional districts on their attitudes toward recommended vaccines.

This comes after the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services announced it has updated the childhood immunization schedule to recommend 11, rather than 17, shots for children.

The generic Congressional ballot in the 35 most competitive districts was a “statistical dead-heat with Democrats holding a two-point edge.”

But “If the Republican candidate supported the elimination of long-standing vaccine recommendations, the ballot margin shifts a net 12-points in the Democrat’s favor, with the GOP candidate trailing by 14-points,” the memo says.

In the 35 districts in question, if the Democratic candidate is against the standing vaccine recommendations, their 2-point lead slides a net 20-points with the Republican leading by 18-points.

“The negative movement for the candidate in either party scenario is even more dire among Swing voters – those voters who say they don’t typically vote along straight party lines –slipping a net 22-points for the Republican vaccine skeptic, and a net 31-points for the Democrat vaccine skeptic,” the memo says.

“Vaccine skepticism is bad politics,” FabrizioWard concludes.

FabrizioWard found that the Make America Healthy Again, or MAHA, movement is popular across party lines with the exception of vaccine skepticism. Voters in the 25 competitive districts resonated with MAHA food policy, with nine in 10 voters for both Trump and Kamala Harris saying the government should require labeling of harmful ingredients and chemicals in ultra-processed foods.

“At the other end of the spectrum, vaccine skepticism, that is the removal of established childhood vaccine recommendations for diseases like whooping cough, measles, hepatitis and others is rejected by the overwhelming number of voters, resonates with just one-in-five voters, and just a third of self-described MAHA voters,” the memo says.

“Vaccine skepticism is an outlier, not a defining policy, of the Make America Healthy Again movement, which has very popular elements with appeal across the political spectrum in these most competitive districts,” FabrizioWard writes.

The polling firm found broad support for childhood vaccines, including Hepatitis B, Shingles, and whooping cough.

More than seven-in-ten voters in these districts from across the political spectrum say the benefits of common vaccines like MMR (83%), TDAP (77%), Hepatitis B (73%), and shingles (73%), outweigh the risks. For each vaccine, this includes more than six-in-ten MAHA voters.

Under the new guidance, the CDC recommends that all children get vaccinated against diphtheria, tetanus, whooping cough, Hib, pneumococcal conjugate, polio, measles, mumps, rubella, HPV, and chickenpox. The rotavirus, COVID-19, influenza, meningococcal disease, hepatitis A, and hepatitis B vaccines have been removed from the schedule.

No vaccine has been banned due to the change, and insurance will continue to cover the previously recommended 17.

FabrizioWard did not immediately respond to The Daily Signal’s request for comment.

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