Protests have expanded rapidly across Iran in recent days, with dozens reportedly having been killed amid a crackdown by the Iranian regime.
“Protesters demonstrated in at least 156 instances across 27 provinces on January 8, which almost doubles the number of protests recorded on January 7,†according to the Institute for the Study of War, a national security policy and education nonprofit.
The anti-regime protests are in response to Iran’s failing economy and rampant inflation. The protests are the largest demonstrations against the regime in years, and President Donald Trump has threatened to take action against the regime if its crackdown on protests turned deadly.
“In the past, they’ve started shooting the hell out of [protesters],†Trump said during a recent interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity. “So they played rough,†Trump continued, “and I said, if they do that, we’re going to hit them very hard.â€
Iran Human Rights, a Norway-based NGO, reports that 45 people, including eight children, were killed during the first 12 days of anti-regime protests. Over 2,000 people have also been arrested, according to the human rights monitor.
Now that there have been some casualties, “I think some response is required†from the Trump administration, Robert Greenway, director of the Allison Center for National Security at The Heritage Foundation, tells The Daily Signal.
While Trump has not indicated what kind of response he would consider against the regime, he has a wide range of economic and military actions he could take, according to Greenway, who served in Trump’s first administration on the National Security Council.
Actions Trump Could Take Against Iranian Regime
The U.S. could increase economic pressure on Iran and sanction regime members “engaged in gross human rights violations,†according to Greenway. The UN could also issue a formal condemnation of the regime, he added.
The U.S. could also place additional restrictions on the “movement of Iranian officials abroad,†or sanction Iran’s assets held abroad, Greenway said.
The Trump administration could increase disruption of tanker ships coming and going from Iran that carry oil and other assets, Greenway said.
Trump could also ratchet up military pressure or even strike against the regime for killing protesters, Greenway says. This could include moving fighter jets, air defense assets, and offensive strike military equipment into the region.
The U.S. could also increase its planning and coordination with Israel on “potential offensive strikes,” Greenway said, adding that it is very likely that any strike against Iran would involve coordination with Israel.
The U.S. could use force against the regime “to strike those assets which are responsible for the munitions and the capabilities used to repress the population in the places where they have been killed,†he said.
Finally, and perhaps “most important,†according to Greenway, is “providing independent access to information, both within and outside†of Iran.
Iran experienced a near total digital blackout on Thursday, according to multiple reports accusing the regime of cutting off internet access in the nation amid growing protests.
Warning Against Repeating History
The Islamic Republic, which governs Iran on a legal code based on Sharia law, took power in 1979 following the Iranian Revolution. There have been multiple instances of large protests against the regime in recent decades, including during the Obama administration in 2009.
President Barack Obama “continued to provide resources to the regime†during the 2009 protests, Greenway said–an action that ultimately dissuaded protests from continuing.
The Obama administration gave Iran the “resources needed to repress†the Iranian people and “imposed no cost for repression,” he said.
“But most importantly, it signaled to the people of Iran that they had no support, and they got no support, and without that, it became very, very difficult†to continue the protests, Greenway said. “They were strongly disincentivized.â€
Trump continues to speak publicly about the protests in Iran, sharing a large video of protests on his social media platform Truth Social early Friday morning.
If the Iranian regime does collapse, Greenway says it is impossible to predict what would happen next but added that if Iran ultimately poses a reduced threat to the U.S. and U.S. allies in the region, that is a “good thing.â€
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