Last weekend, just a few metres from a Christmas market in Leipzig, Germany, came within inches of yet another tragedy. A 27-year-old man of Syrian nationality was denied entry to a nightclub because the venue was full. Minutes later, he returned and pulled an AK-47 rifle from his jacket. He did not fire: he failed to insert the magazine correctly and was subdued by security staff. The man was detained by police but later released.
The episode, confirmed by the German police, would have been relegated to the crime pages were it not for one detail that has sparked a strong political and social reaction. The individual, known to the security services for prior offences, was released on bail while the investigation continues. The incident has once again brought into focus a question that Germany has been avoiding for months, supposedly so as not to give ammunition to the ‘far-right’ Alternative für Deutschland (AfD): why tens of thousands of Syrians remain in Germany when the war in their country has ended, which was one of the official reasons given by asylum seekers for why they needed protection.
The thwarted Leipzig attack is not an isolated case but the latest in a series of incidents involving Syrian nationals that have fuelled the perception of a structural problem. From knife attacks to violent confrontations in public spaces, these episodes have gradually eroded the official narrative that frames migration exclusively in humanitarian terms.
Added to this is the sense of impunity perceived by many citizens when serious crimes do not lead to immediate consequences in terms of deportation or pre-trial detention. In Leipzig, the fact that someone could attempt to use a weapon of that magnitude in the middle of a city centre and then be released pending trial has been interpreted by many as a symptom of a system under strain.
Each incident of this kind further erodes the everyday normalcy of Western societies (where public spaces used to be largely safe) until a state of normalised degradation sets in. Something similar has been denounced in Belgium, where some are already speaking of a “failed state.â€
The cost of not deciding
Days earlier in Germany, another case had once again put concrete figures on the debate. In Baden-Württemberg, a response from the Ministry of Justice to a parliamentary question revealed that a large Syrian family, settled in Stuttgart and known for repeated criminal offences, has generated public costs approaching €500,000. It is a family of around twenty people, collectively investigated for some 160 offences, including attempted homicide, assaults, and theft.
Five of its members served prison sentences. Prison costs alone, calculated at €180 per inmate per day, exceeded €478,000. When 17 members of the family left Germany in October through a ‘controlled departure,’ the additional expense—flights, documentation, and assistance—amounted to around €45,000. The ministry itself acknowledged that, despite the figure, this departure was “the most economical solution†compared with their indefinite stay in the system.
For more than a decade, Germany and the rest of the European Union justified the suspension of deportations to Syria by the civil war that began in 2011. That justification no longer exists. In December 2024, the conflict ended with the fall of the al-Assad regime, a development that has radically changed the political and legal framework.
Some leaders have begun to say so out loud. Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU, has suggested that, with the war over, the return of Syrians to their country should be seriously considered. Other members of the government, such as Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, are more cautious and argue that the situation on the ground remains unstable, making large-scale deportations difficult.
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