It’s been five months since the U.S. bombed three of Iran’s primary nuclear facilities, and the Iranian regime is “very afraid,” according to the executive director of the Middle East Forum.  

While Iran’s capabilities are “not something to sneeze at,” Gregg Roman says diverse opinions over the future of Iran have led to a change in strategy from the regime.  

The future of the Iranian regime and its threat to Israel is tied, at least in part, to a massaging war, says Roman, who leads the Philadelphia-based think tank, which promotes American interests in the Middle East.  

“If you look at the regime itself, in most public opinion polling, only somewhere between 15% and 20% of the Iranian people actually support the idea of the Islamic Republic,” Roman says.  

Sharia law is deeply intertwined into the regime’s Islamic Republic, which was first established in Iran in 1979.  

After the U.S. strikes on Iran in June, Roman says the regime began taking action to maintain its stranglehold on power and started carrying out more executions and imprisoning more political opponents. Now, the regime has also changed its “propaganda” strategy, according to Roman.  

“They’ve shifted their narrative,” Roman said, “talking about not enemies of the Islamic Republic, but enemies of Iran.”  

Iranian citizens viewed the conflict between Israel and Iran that erupted in June as “Israel versus the Islamic Republic,” Roman said, noting that the Islamic Republic is only 46 years old, but Iran, as a civilization, dates back over 2,500 years. Now, “what the Iranian regime is trying to do is to show that this war was Israel versus Iran.”  

The Iranian regime appears to be encouraging Iranian nationalism over Sharia law and is not enforcing totalitarian laws, such as women wearing a hijab. The regime, according to Roman, is likely trying to avoid an event similar to the death of Mahsa Amini, an incident that today could trigger the forceful overthrow of the regime.  

In 2022, Amini died in police custody after being arrested by the modesty police in Iran for not wearing a hijab. The incident sparked protests and national outrage.  

Furthermore, there is disagreement in the regime itself over who will lead the country when Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who is 86, dies.  

Adding to the tension and fear of instability is the water crisis in Tehran, Iran’s capital, which has led Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian to suggest moving the nation’s capital is no longer a choice, but “an obligation.” Structural issues and mismanagement of Iran’s resources have contributed to a severe water crisis in the nation.  

“The Iranian people, or at least those who claim to speak for them outside of Iran, realize that the only way for there to be a change in government or change in the situation, is to change the regime, but there’s not one person or one group of people who have the courage to do what it takes to get there,” Roman said.  

In all likelihood, Roman believes the fall of the regime â€œa little far away,” but “that being said, it’s more often than not, an unexpected event, like a killing of a young woman for not learning hijab, or forced evacuation of a neighborhood because of the water crisis â€¦â€ that could untimely lead to regime change.  

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