On the eastern edge of Europe, three NATO allies are investing seriously in their own security, venturing far beyond what most of America’s other allies have committed to.
The Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania face a greater existential threat from Russia than any other NATO members—and they’ve acted accordingly. Over the past year, and even the past decade, the trio has led the charge on amping the European defense budget to counter an increasingly aggressive Russia.
NATO’s most recent annual summit at The Hague resulted in a tremendous outcome, achieved in large part due to continuous effort from President Donald Trump. After years of neglecting defense spending, the alliance as a whole (with the exception of Spain) agreed to a new construct under which they will spend 5% of GDP on defense, with 3.5% allocated to core defense spending and 1.5% to defense-related infrastructure spending.
Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine is approaching its fourth year, and many European states have stepped up to provide military equipment and financial aid to Ukraine. By increasing their defense expenditures, Europe aims to address defense gaps and counter the looming Russian war economy, which may set its sights elsewhere following the Russo-Ukrainian War.
Yet the Baltic states remain well ahead of the curve. And with good reason—after Ukraine, the three Baltic states are the most likely target for further Russian aggression in Europe. Since their admission to the alliance in 2004, the states have formed the narrow eastern flank of NATO.
No strangers to colonialism, they’ve been steadfast vocal advocates for countering Russia. Indeed, from 2013-2020, defense spending among the Baltic states increased twofold in comparison to the rest of the alliance. Following the summit in The Hague, the Baltic states reaffirmed their pledge to meet 5% of GDP for defense spending.
The states’ precarious geographical position is further complicated by the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, which nearly isolates the Baltic states from the rest of mainland Europe. The Suwalki Gap, or the narrow corridor between Poland and Lithuania, is a likely target for Russian incursion following the Russo-Ukrainian War.
The Baltic states have repeatedly been the target of Russian “gray zone†warfare, or asymmetric actions that blur the lines between war and peace. Last December, the Estlink-2 electricity connection between Finland and Estonia was severed by a tanker believed to be part of Russia’s “shadow fleet†of sanctions-evading ships. Other instances over the past two years, including railway bombings, arson attacks, and freighter airplane crashes, are likely part of a Russian campaign to agitate Baltic sentiment against supporting Ukraine.
Proactive NATO exercises are necessary to maintain the collective deterrence and defense that NATO guarantees to the Baltic states. NATO maintains three Enhanced Forward Presence battlegroups in each of the three Baltic states to deter Russian aggression. Led by Germany, the UK, and Canada, these multinational battlegroups are capable of operating independently in their geographic area.
There are some reasons to be optimistic about NATO’s ability to deter Russian aggression against the Baltic states, especially because of Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO. With their recent admission in 2023, the Baltic Sea has become colloquially known as a “NATO Lake.†Russian naval assets that transit the Baltic Sea from Saint Petersburg to Kaliningrad must skirt the waters of NATO members to reach their destination.
The Hague Summit requires that new Baltic defense expenditures be distributed to military modernization and equipment procurement. The commitment requires 3.5% of GDP to be allocated to core defense requirements such as active personnel and NATO infrastructure. The remaining 1.5% is to be distributed towards protecting critical infrastructure and investment in countries’ respective defense industrial bases. Estonia, for instance, vowed to allocate 50% of its defense budget to procure lethal weapons systems such as U.S. HIMARS rocket systems.
The Baltic states are all making major defense spending increases in 2026 and the years to come.
Early this year, Lithuania, which currently spends 3% of GDP on defense, had announced it would increase defense spending to 5-6% of GDP by 2026.
Latvia’s Parliament approved a new draft law that would allocate 4.91% of GDP on defense in 2026; the state’s current budget already amounts to 3.8% of GDP on defense. For this fiscal year, the Latvian military will spend roughly half of its budget on military capabilities, with the other half to be doled out to maintenance, personnel, and military infrastructure costs.
Estonia’s Ministry of Defense will move its spending goalpost from 3.35% in 2025 to 5.37% of GDP for 2026 and the foreseeable future—amounting to over 10 billion euros in defense spending between 2026 and 2029.
The Baltic states have been occupied by Russia before, and they’ve made it more than clear that they prefer to stay in Europe. The three countries have impressive defense spending levels and policies and they’ve demonstrated clear commitment to their NATO responsibilities. But they can’t stand alone. Other NATO members, especially the wealthy nations of Western Europe, should prioritize deterring Russian aggression against the Baltic states.
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