Republican representatives from California will have to fight for their survival in the 2026 midterms as Democrats redraw the Golden State’s congressional maps to increase their districts after passage of Proposition 50.
Proposition 50, which California voters supported by about a 2 to 1 margin in this year’s election, will temporarily suspend the state’s’s independent redistricting commission so Democrats can increase their representation by about 5 seats.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom justified the redistricting effort by claiming it was in response to redistricting in Texas and other red states. The new congressional map is expected to flip several congressional districts blue, including the ones currently represented by California Republican Reps. Doug LaMalfa, Kevin Kiley, Ken Calvert, Darrell Issa, and David Valadao.
Issa, Valadao, and Kiley are expected to come under immense pressure come the 2026 midterms.
California’s 52 congressional seats are currently occupied by 43 Democrats and just 9 Republicans. While President Donald Trump secured nearly 40% of the Golden State’s vote in 2024, less than 20% of the congressional seats are occupied by Republicans.
Issa and Valadao have fighting chances to keep their seats, whereas Democrats are looking to district Kiley out of Congress entirely.
Issa Prepares for a Fight
Valadao and Issa both also supported the One Big Beautiful Bill, which enshrined much of President Donald Trump’s agenda into federal law. The bill provided about $100 billion for border enforcement, modernization of the U.S.’s air traffic control system, preserved and expanded Trump’s tax cuts, and increased the child tax credit, among other things.
“I’m not going anywhere. I’ll continue to represent the people of California — regardless of their party or where they live,” Issa said in a statement following Tuesday’s election results. Issa’s new district drawn by the state legislature has turned his seat from solid red to light blue.Â
Issa is serving his second stint in Congress. He first came to Washington in 2001 and held his seat until 2019. During his first stint, he chaired the House Oversight Committee from 2011 to 2015 and managed Congress’ response to the Obama-era IRS scandal.
Issa returned to Washington in 2021 and has kept his seat with a strong, conservative voting record.
The Southern Californian has robust conservative bona fides. He has earned an A+ rating from Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America by voting for legislation like the Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act and a resolution condemning attacks on pro-life facilities and churches.
Issa has also supported the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act that would make it against federal law for schools that receive federal funding to allow males to participate in athletic programs meant for girls and women.
Valadao Looks to Hold On
Like Issa, Valadao has served two separate stints in Congress. His first stint ran from 2013 to 2019, but he returned to Washington in 2021.
Valadao has likewise received an A+ from the Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America scorecard.
Valadao’s new district will still likely be red, with it reportedly going, according to Punchbowl News, “from a seat President Donald Trump won by six points to one he won by two points.â€
Valadao’s office was not immediately available for comment.
Does Kiley Have a Chance?
Meanwhile, Kiley, who currently represents California’s 3rd congressional district, will face a steeper uphill battle. His district’s new borders now encompass a region that went for then-Vice President Kamala Harris in her 2024 presidential bid by 10 points.
Kiley, a member of Congress since 2023, has yet to announce whether he will seek reelection, but the prospects of flipping the 3rd district are already enticting Democrat challengers, as Rep. Ami Bera, D-Calif., has declared his intention to run.
Other Republicans find themselves in a similar situation to Kiley.
Calvert is campaigning for California’s new 40th congressional district, which includes greater than 50% of the district he presently represents. But he’ll have to face off against Rep. Young Kim, R-Calif., the current representative for the 40th district, who has said she will run for reelection in the solidly-red new district as well.
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