The Virginia election season began with the Democrat ticket leading, but after scandal hit Democrat attorney general nominee Jay Jones, at least one observer predicts it could be the first split-ticket outcome in the state in 20 years.  

Democrat gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger and Jones had led in the polls since June. However, after politically charged, violent text messages sent by Jones in 2022 were made public in early October, Jason Miyares became the only Republican to take a steady lead.  

The attorney general election initially made national headlines after Jones’ past was exposed. In early October, the Richmond Times-Dispatch reported he had avoided jail time in early 2022 and allegedly misled the court about fulfilling his community service hours ordered following a reckless-driving ticket for doing 116 mph in a 70-mph zone.

A day later, the National Review published a report about text messages, also from 2022, that Jones sent to a Virginia Republican legislator fantasizing about assassinating then-Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert and similarly threatening Gilbert’s two young children. 

“Before the Jones text story broke about a month ago, it would have been reasonable to call Miyares an underdog. Now, I’d characterize it as more of a toss-up,” J. Miles Coleman, the associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ nonpartisan newsletter on American campaigns and elections, told The Daily Signal.

Coleman identified two groups that could swing the election: “Those ‘soft’ Spanberger [voters] who are predisposed to vote Democratic, but were put off by Jones’ texts,” and those who view a vote for Jones as a vote against President Donald Trump. 

“Negative partisanship is real,” he said.  

Trump and his administration denounced the threatening text messages. Trump called Jones a “radical left lunatic” and said he should “drop out of the Race IMMEDIATELY.” In the same post, Trump gave his “Complete and Total Endorsement” to Miyares.  

Coleman believes that support from Trump and other national Republicans—such as Vice President JD Vance and House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.—might hurt Miyares. “They may find Jones’ texts unsavory, but they may come to see a vote against Miyares as a vote against Trump,” Coleman said. 

Though Spanberger has denounced the texts, she has not called for Jones to quit the race. Her silence was notable during an Oct. 9 gubernatorial debate, when she was challenged on it by her Republican rival, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.

Spanberger subsequently shared her frustration on Katie Couric’s podcast on Oct. 21. 

Spanberger said: â€œThe fact that I have to spend even a moment’s time talking about somebody else’s text messages from years ago, rather than what I want to do as governor, is something that I am deeply unhappy about.” 

Republican former U.S. Rep. Dave Brat said he’s familiar with Spanberger’s tendency to avoid direct questions. â€œWhen I ran against Spanberger, it was just kind of a â€˜Seinfeld’ show about silence and crickets. She didn’t ever have a position on anything,” he told The Daily Signal.  

Brat believes Spanberger could win, but he also thinks the Republican nominees for lieutenant governor and attorney general have a chance—though it will likely be close. 

“There hasn’t been a split-ticket outcome in Virginia since 2005, but this year could see a real test of that,” Coleman said. “The consensus seems to be that Spanberger will win the gubernatorial race, but the margin will be important. To me, if Spanberger wins by more than 8 points, it’ll get hard for Miyares to generate enough crossover support to hold on.” 

Early voting has been open since Sept. 19, two weeks before the Jones texts were made public. While more than 1 million Virginians have already cast ballots, the state has 6.3 million registered voters. The polls will open Tuesday at 6 a.m. and will close at 7 p.m. 

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