On Tuesday, Pennsylvania voters will decide whether they want to retain the Democrat majority on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court.

Three Democrat justices of the seven-person court are up for a retention vote, and the results could impact the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election in the Keystone State, which could be a cause for concern for potential 2028 Democrat presidential candidate Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. If all three justices are not retained, then the court will have an even split between Republican and Democrat justices until the 2027 elections, and a chance for a Republican majority if those following elections go the GOP’s way.

The election provides Republicans a chance at redemption because Republicans lost all three state Supreme Court seats by about 3 to 4 points in the last election that was held in 2015. Pennsylvania Supreme Court justices serve for 10-year terms and can hold office until the mandatory retirement age of 75. One of the three justices up for retention, Christine Donohue, would reach mandatory retirement in 2027.

Pennsylvania Is Becoming More Red

“Pennsylvania has been trending more and more red over the past decade with a nearly equal split now between registered Democrat and Republican voters,” Vince Benedetto, the founder and president of Bold Gold Media Group, which broadcasts political commentary throughout Pennsylvania and New York, told The Daily Signal.

Benedetto said to “expect extremely close races where a relatively small number of votes will decide major election outcomes and could decide national balance of power.”

And, for Pennsylvania voters, election integrity remains top of mind: “How those votes are counted will be watched very closely!” the broadcaster said.

Election Integrity Remains a Priority

Matthew Brouillette, president and CEO of the Commonwealth Partners Chamber of Entrepreneurs, a 501(c)(6) membership organization that supports free-market principles, expressed discontent with The Daily Signal over some of the past decisions by the state justices up for retention—especially those involving election integrity.

“Over the past 10 years, Justices Donohue, [Kevin] Dougherty, and [David] Wecht have ignored clearly-written laws to issue orders that contradict these laws. For example, on gerrymandering, the law is clear that it’s the legislature’s job to draw maps. But in 2018, the court said it wanted to draw its own map, which benefitted Democrats,” Brouillette said.

He also criticized the court’s decision regarding late ballots for the 2020 general elections in Pennsylvania.

“On mail-in ballots, the law is clear that ballots must arrive by 8:00 pm on Election Day. But in 2020, the court told counties to ignore this law,” Brouillette continued. “Also, on mail-in ballots, the law is clear that ballots must be dated, but in 2020, the court said undated ballots in Allegheny County would count just this once, even though Justice Donohue literally said that the decision allowed ‘technical violations of the Election Code.’”

When asked about the impact on perceived election integrity, Benedetto said, “If those justices are retained, it will almost certainly keep fueling doubts on Pennsylvania election integrity while also allowing past, rather extraordinary judicial intervention in matters historically left to the state legislature, to become precedent.”

Ken Martin, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, told the Pennsylvania Capital-Star that he viewed the stakes as “everything from redistricting and education funding and everything else that comes before the courts,” among other issues.

“What you want is fair-minded independent judges on the bench who are going to take their job seriously, which is to not legislate or push an agenda, but actually base their decisions on the rule of law and base their decision on legal precedent, not on politics,” Martin added.

Conservatives’ Chance of Victory?

Benedetto also said, “From an historical perspective in PA, the odds generally favor judges being retained.”

Since 1968, only one statewide judge has lost their retention race. That was Democrat Justice Russell Nigro, who lost retention in 2005 by a slim margin of 49% to 51%. He blamed voter anger over pay raises for Pennsylvania government officials as a reason for his loss. Nigro’s colleague, however, Justice Sandra Schultz Newman, won retention that same year by a vote of 54% to 46%.

Still there a variety of one-off factors this year that could make Pennsylvania history. “Polling-wise, it’s a mixed bag and very unpredictable this year, thanks to all the national noise, government shutdown drama and influx of spending into the races by both parties,” Benedetto noted. A Franklin & Marshall College poll conducted in late September and early October found that 43%, 51%, and 55% of registered Pennsylvania voters did not know if they were going to vote to retain Donohue, Dougherty, and Wecht, respectively.

“Polling shows a very large numbers of undecideds, with ‘No’ votes polling higher than usual, but it’s tight. Also, retention votes are often more complex to message to voters, which often leads to a lot of undecideds in the data,” he concluded.

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