GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) — While West Michigan is still stuck in a summer pattern, change is on the way.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has given La Niña a 71% chance of returning between October and November. By the time winter rolls around, La Niña is still favored with a 54% chance of sticking around.

Since April 2024, sea surface temperatures have been near-average, keeping it in a neutral phase.

WHAT IS LA NINA?

A La Niña pattern occurs in the eastern Pacific Ocean when below average sea surface temperatures are recorded. This change typically pulls the jet stream through the central United States, bringing cooler and wetter conditions north and warmer and drier conditions south.

Forecasters are indicating that it would likely be a weak La Niña, meaning sea surface temperatures trend .5 to .9 degrees below average.

WHAT EFFECT WILL LA NINA HAVE ON WEST MICHIGAN?

West Michigan is no stranger to weak La Niñas during the winter months. In fact, the most recent was the winter of 2022-2023, when more than 100 inches of snow fell. Other years, however, produced considerably less snowfall. The winter of 2016-2017 saw just short of 60 inches of snow.

Despite La Niña being a big factor in forecasting what a winter will be like, there are several more factors that need to be evaluated, like the polar vortex and Siberian snowpack. Those factors will become clearer in the coming weeks.